Cavan-Monaghan constituency profile: Loss of Heather Humphreys a major blow to Fine Gael with question mark over Fianna Fáil prospects

Outgoing TDs: Heather Humphreys (FG – not standing), Pauline Tully (SF), Matt Carthy (SF), Brendan Smith (FF), Niamh Smyth (FF)
Who are the candidates in the Cavan-Monaghan constituency?: Deputy Pauline Tully (SF), Deputy Matt Carthy (SF), Cllr Cathy Bennett (SF), Cllr Sarah O’Reilly (Aon), Cllr Shane P O’Reilly (Ind Ire), Lester Gordon (Ind), Val Martin (IFP), Mark Moore (Ind/Nat All) TP O’Reilly (FG), Cllr Carmel Brady (FG), Cllr David Maxwell (FG), Niamh Smyth (FF), Brendan Smyth (FF), Senator Robbie Gallagher (FF), Emma Hendrick (PBP), Eddie O’Gara (Green Party)
Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys surprised her party and constituents when she announced in October that she would be joining a long list of Fine Gael TDs who are retiring from politics. The party is pinning its hopes now on the cathaoirleach of Cavan County Council, TP O’Reilly, and two other candidates.
Councillor Carmel Brady was added to the ticket in late October alongside Mr O’Reilly and Monaghan-based Councillor David Maxwell. Fine Gael’s aim is to win two seats out of the five here – but they will have to take a seat from either Sinn Féin or Fianna Fáil, a more difficult task without Ms Humphreys.
The 2020 general election saw good news for Sinn Féin in Cavan-Monaghan, where Matt Carthy topped the poll with 22.6 per cent of the first preference vote – 16,310 votes on a 12,031 quota.
Pauline Tully took the third seat after Humphreys claimed the second spot. Humphreys had a 17.7 per cent first-preference vote to Tully’s 14 per cent. Sinn Féin decided late in the day to add Cllr Cathy Bennett to the ticket. Adding a third Sinn Féin TD may be an ask given the difficult few months the party has endured.
In the 2020 election, Fianna Fáil’s Niamh Smyth and Brendan Smith took the last two seats. Back then, the Green Party’s candidate Tate Donnelly (who was the youngest candidate in the country) performed well, winning 4,187 votes, surviving until the eighth count. The Aontú candidate, Sarah O’Reilly, also performed strongly, surviving to the ninth count and taking 5,745 votes. She will be hoping to put in another strong performance this time.
Humphreys was considered a dead cert to keep her seat, but there is surely a Fine Gael seat in her absence. There was a time when Sinn Féin would have been confident of returning both Carthy and Tully, but with a succession of polls showing a cratering of party support in the lead-up to the election, Sinn Féin strategists will be watching anxiously how the three candidate gamble pays off.
There are question marks over Fianna Fáil’s ability to hold two seats, given they are polling below Fine Gael, but both Smith and Smyth are understood to have put significant time into their constituency work over the last four years. The party is also running Senator Robbie Gallagher who will be hoping to sweep up some of Heather Humphrey’s Monaghan votes, but Niamh Smyth will be hoping for the same outcome, putting him under pressure.
In the recent local and European elections, Independents emerged as big winners. There are at least three Independents running in Cavan Monaghan. Cllr Shane P O’Reilly, who is running under the Independent Ireland banner, topped the poll in Ballyjamesduff this summer. Lester Gordon is another Independent, while Mark Moore is running under the National Alliance banner.
Possible outcome: 1 FG, 1 FF, 2 SF, 1 Ind